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Weekly Mortgage Update
March 31st, 2008 12:13 PM
Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors prepare for this week's data. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 45 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.

This week is light in terms of the number of economic reports scheduled for release, however, two of the three reports that are scheduled to be posted are considered to be of high importance. With important data being posted only tomorrow and Friday, we should see several days of little movement in mortgage pricing.

The first relevant report of the week comes late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index. This index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives. A reading below 50 means more surveyed executives felt business worsened during the month than those who said it had improved. This month's report is expected to show a decline from last month's reading of 47.5, meaning business sentiment fell during the month. That would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

February's Factory Orders will be posted early Wednesday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.8% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-event in the mortgage market.

The other important report of the week will be posted Friday morning. The Labor Department will release March's Employment report, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added to the economy. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in the unemployment rat e from February's 4.8% to 5.0% and that approximately 50,000 payrolls were lost during the month.

Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates either tomorrow or Friday. Friday is the most important day of the week with the employment numbers being released, but we will likely see a fair amount of movement in rates Tuesday morning also. In between we should see fairly calm days as long as the stock markets don't stage significant rallies or a sell-off.

Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 31st, 2008 12:13 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Banks freezing Home Equity Lines of Credit!
March 31st, 2008 4:15 PM

Most of California is considered by lenders to be a declining market.  What this means is that lenders put even greater restrictions on guidelines such as the amount of money that they are willing to lend to any given borrower. 

For example, one of the common practices that I am seeing today for the new Jumbo-Conforming loans (up to $729,950) backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Government Sponsored Enterprises), which based on their new guidelines would lend up to 90% of a Purchase price (CLTV) for a Primary Residence household is an automatic 5% reduction due to a declining market, bringing it down to 85% CLTV.

Also, due to the declining market and high foreclosure rates, many lenders are putting a freeze on the Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC's).  Unlike a fixed loan, a HELOC is very much like a credit card and is therefore very flexible.  People use the HELOC to pay for many things such as credit cards, bills, home improvement, property taxes, etc.  Some even use their HELOC's as a down-payment for another property.  As another benefit, the interest paid on the HELOC's is tax deductable.

So, if you are using your HELOC on a regular bases, be AWARE that your may be receiving a letter from your bank letting you know that your HELOC is now frozen!  With the 2'nd installment of the property taxes due on April 10'th, don't wait to make that payment if you are planning on using your HELOC.

Finally, for those of you on the fence thinking that the home prices may continue to decline even further...consider a couple of points:

  • Lenders are getting more and more stringent about their requirements and its getting harder and harder to qualify borrowers.  This is especially true if you are considering to purchase an investment property (non-owner occupied or NOO)
  • Long-term Fixed Rates are likely to go up:
    • The Fed has just recently cut an additional 3/4% but don't expect mortgage rates to go down too.  Consider recent history.  The Fed issued an emergency cut of short term rates in early January and then trimmed more just a few days later, but the 30 year fixed mortgage rate has responded by bouncing up from 5.6% to 6.4%. 
    • Long-term mortgage rates are mostly tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which is determined by bond traders worldwide. 
    • Inflation drives long-term fixed rates.  When the Fed cuts short term rates, the intent was to lower borrowing costs for corporations so that they'll invest and hire.  But this economic growth can lead to inflation.  That in turn leads bond traders to demand higher rates on their long-term bonds, and that drives up mortgage rates too. 
    • The Fed began a series of cuts on its key interest rate late September, taking the rate to 2.25% from 5.25%.

Bottom line, make the decision on what side of the fence you want to be sooner rather than later.


Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 31st, 2008 4:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Mortgage News Update
March 24th, 2008 11:17 AM
Monday's bond market has opened down sharply following an early stock rally and stronger than expected housing news. The stock markets are kicking the week off quite strong with the Dow up 212 points and the Nasdaq up 60 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .500 of a discount point over Thursday's rates.

The first report of the week came late this morning with the release of February's Existing Home Sales. It showed a 2.8% increase in home resales last month when it was expected to show another decline. This is good news for the housing sector, but considered bad news for bonds.

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more reports for the bond market to digest. The next one is the first important data of the week when March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is posted late tomorrow morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a decline from February's reading of 75.0 to 73.4.

Wednesday's important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in orders of approximately 0.8%. A larger increase would be considered a negative for bonds and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. I am expecting the CCI or Durable Goods Orders reports to have the biggest influence on mortgage rates, so by default we can declare tomorrow or Wednesday to be of high importance. The truth is that rather than a significant change in rates one or two days, we will most likely see a slight change several days. Accordingly, the risk of floating an interest rate this week is not as great as last week, but with a low expectation of much improvement in rates the next several days, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 24th, 2008 11:17 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Platinum Club Realty Team: March 2008 Newsletter
March 17th, 2008 11:11 AM

Good Morning,

Hope you had a great weekend!

Kick off the week by a review of our Newsletter to keep you up to date on Real Estate & Financing News.

Read about the 2008 National Association of Realtor's Forecast. Check out the New Homes Now Selling in Windemere. Review the Mortgage Rates as of today.

March 2008 Newsletter

 

Have a Real Estate or Financing Question?

Give Zia a call at (925) 984-7671 or Oleg at (925) 984-7734 today!

 

We look forward to hearing from you.

Have a Great Week.

 

Best Regards,

Oleg & Zia Chernyak 


Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 17th, 2008 11:11 AMPost a Comment (0)

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New FHA LOAN Limits ANNOUNCED!
March 6th, 2008 12:09 PM

FHA Releases New Mortgage Limits for California Counties

FHA Max Limits Include 14 CA Counties

* FHA Press Release *

WASHINGTON - Tens of thousands of California families could be eligible this year to purchase or refinance their homes using affordable, government-backed mortgages, thanks to the economic growth package signed into law by President Bush. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 will allow HUD's Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to temporarily increase its loan limits and insure larger mortgages at a more affordable price in high cost areas of the country.

"The Bush Administration is expanding the pool of eligible borrowers, enabling more American families to qualify for safe, affordable FHA-insured mortgage loans. These temporarily higher loan limits are a shot in the arm for communities trying to sustain property values, bringing much-needed liquidity to the mortgage market, while helping many current homeowners who desperately need to refinance," said HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson at a forum on how to prevent foreclosure at the Operation Hope Center in Los Angeles and a Hope Now Alliance event in Anaheim.

Beginning tomorrow, HUD will offer temporary FHA loan limits that will range from $271,050 to $729,750. Overall, the change in loan limits will help provide economic stability to America 's communities and give nearly 240,000 additional homeowners and homebuyers a safer, more affordable mortgage alternative. The maximum amount of $729,750 will only be applicable to extremely high-cost metropolitan areas such as:

  • Los Angeles County
  • San Francisco County
  • Orange County
  • Santa Barbara County

Previously, FHA's loan limits in these very high-cost areas were capped at $362,790.

The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 permits FHA to insure loans on amounts up to 125 percent of the area median house price, when that amount is between the national minimum ($271,050) and maximum ($729,750). The new minimum and maximum loan limits are based on 65 percent and 175 percent of the conforming loan limits for Government-Sponsored Enterprises in 2008, which is $417,000. The FHA used a combination of existing government data sets and available commercial information to determine the median sales price for each area. The change in loan limits are applicable to all FHA-insured mortgage loans endorsed after HUD publishes the increased loan limits tomorrow, and it lasts until December 31, 2008 .

By increasing loan limits nationwide, FHA will provide much needed liquidity and stability to housing markets across the country. Already, as conventional sources of mortgage credit have been contracting, FHA has been filling the void. From September to December 2007, FHA facilitated more than $38 billion of much-needed mortgage activity in the housing market, more than $15 billion of which was through FHASecure, FHA's refinancing product. By focusing on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, FHA helps homeowners avoid and escape the risks associated exotic subprime mortgage products, which have resulted in rising default and foreclosure rates.

"This is not an easy crisis to address, and there is no silver-bullet, but I know that we can help hundreds of thousands of people keep their homes, and we can calm the waters," said Jackson .

In January 2009, FHA's maximum loan limit will return to $362,790, unless the U.S. Congress approves bipartisan legislation to permanently increase loan limits as part of the FHA Modernization bill, which is still awaiting final approval on Capitol Hill.

"In January 2009 the loan limits will return to their previous setting," Jackson said. "That is why we need to permanently raise the loan limits to an acceptable level that more accurately reflect housing prices nationwide. We also need to make the minimum down payment more flexible and create a fairer insurance premium structure. This will allow more families to use FHA."

FHA loan limits are based on the county in which the property is located. However, for properties located in metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas, the limit is set at that of the county with the highest limit within the metropolitan or micropolitan area.

The new temporary FHA loan limits for California are listed below. The full text of the Secretary's remarks can be found on the HUD website.

California County Limits

County                             Med Price              New FHA Limit

Alameda County       995000          729750 - MAX
Alpine County        438000          547500
Amador County        550000          443750
Butte County         320000          400000
Calaveras County     370000          462500
Colusa County        318000          397500
Contra Costa County  995000          729750 - MAX
Del Norte County     249000          311250
El Dorado County     464000          580000
Fresno County        305000          381250
Glenn County         230000          287500
Humboldt County      315000          393750
Imperial County      260000          325000
Inyo County          350000          437500
Kern County          295000          368750
Kings County         260000          325000
Lake County          321000          401250
Lassen County        200000          271050
Los Angeles County   710000          729750 - MAX
Madera County        340000          425000
Marin County         995000          729750 - MAX
Mariposa County      330000          412500
Mendocino County     410000          512500
Merced County        378000          472500
Modoc County         125000          271050
Mono County          370000          462500
Monterey County      599000          729750 - MAX
Napa County          615000          729750 - MAX
Nevada County        450000          562500
Orange County        710000          729750 - MAX
Placer County        464000          580000
Plumas County        328000          410000
Riverside County     400000          500000
Sacramento County    464000          580000
San Benito County    790000          729750 – MAX

San Bernardino       400000          500000
San Diego County     558000          697500
San Francisco County 995000          729750 - MAX
San Joaquin County   391000          488750
San Luis Obispo Cnty 550000          687500
San Mateo County     995000          729750 - MAX
Santa Barbara County 615000          729750 - MAX
Santa Clara County   790000          729750 - MAX
Santa Cruz County    719000          729750 - MAX
Shasta County        339000          423750
Sierra County        228000          285000
Siskiyou County      235000          293750
Solano County        446000          557500
Sonoma County        530000          662500
Stanislaus County    339000          423750
Sutter County        340000          425000
Tehama County        250000          312500
Trinity County       200000          271050
Tulare County        260000          325000
Tuolumne County      350000          437500
Ventura County       599000          729750 - MAX
Yolo County          464000          580000
Yuba County          340000          425000


Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 6th, 2008 12:09 PMPost a Comment (0)

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What the Stimulus Package could mean for You!
March 4th, 2008 1:06 PM

On February 13'th, 2008, President Bush signed a $170 Billion stimulus package to boost the economy. The envisioned plan focuses on cash rebates, business breaks and other proposals.

The Stimulus package will provide most individual taxpayers $600 and $1200 for married taxpayers filing jointly. There are income caps of $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples. A $300 per child under 17 tax credit is also part of the rebates of the Stimulus package. To avail of the rebate, you have to file a federal tax return for 2007.

For businesses, the package includes tax breaks for equipment purchases, as well as, payments to some senior citizens and to disabled veterans. In less than 4 weeks, this measure moved through Congress from initial talks to enactment.

The Economic Stimulus Package also provides temporary loan limit increases for some high-cost areas for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans and potentially all areas for FHA loans. This aims to stimulate more activity in so-called jumbo housing markets, where high prices means home buyers have to take out loans that exceed the "conforming loan limits" on mortgages that the two agencies may buy and sell in the secondary market from $417,000 to as high as $729,750.

Because these new loan limits fall outside current standard conforming conventional and FHA loan limits, many of the lenders do not yet have definitive guidelines or pricing. Before lenders can accept applications with the higher loan amounts, several issues must be finalized by the GSEs and FHA, and then communicated, including:

  • Impacted Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).
  • GSEs and FHA must determine the delivery approach they will require of mortgage lenders and investors.
  • GSEs and FHA must communicate their requirements to mortgage lenders and investors.

HUD has 30 days from the day the President signed the package into law to identify the impacted MSAs. We expect the impacted areas to be announced simultaneously in mid-March to all mortgage lenders, and that they will remain in effect until Dec. 31, 2008.

Because of the changes in the mortgage industry, the median area sales prices may be dramatically different throughout the year. Thus, the timeframe used by HUD to determine the higher loan limits is key.

FHA Modernization Act

As a reminder, the proposed FHA Modernization Act, which has not yet been passed by Congress, contains many changes for FHA loans, including permanent higher loan limits and decreased down payments. Those are separate changes and are not part of the Economic Stimulus Package.

Stay tuned for more updates and feel free to reach out to us should you have any questions.


Posted by Zia Chernyak on March 4th, 2008 1:06 PMPost a Comment (0)

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